EUR/AUD Likely Break Below Uptrend Line if Australian Private Sector Credit Expands

EUR/AUD – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.

Australia – Private Sector Credit

On Friday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the month-over-month Private Sector Credit data, which measures the changes in the total value of new credit issued to consumers and corporations in the country over the previous month.

Forex traders consider the private sector credit to be an important fundamental indicator of the Australian economy as borrowing and spending are highly correlated. Consumers and businesses only take out credit when they feel confident about their ability to pay it back in the future. Hence, it also acts as a measure of consumer and business confidence.

Last month, the private sector credit in Australia increased by 0.4% and the forecast for this month is currently set at an increase of 0.4% as well.

Eurozone – M3 Money Supply

Later, at GMT 9:00 a.m., the European Central Bank will release the year-over-year M3 money supply figure that measures the changes in the total quantity of issues currency in the greater Europe. The M3 consists of all hard currency in circulation as well as the bank deposits, including in the central bank.

As the M3 money supply increases, it makes funds available for investments. However, an excess money supply can also lead to inflation and liquidity trap in the economy. Hence, the European Central Bank often adjust their interest rate policy based on the current M3 money supply situation. As a result, the Forex investors consider the quantity of the M3 to be a leading indicator of the future direction of the economy.

Last month, the Eurozone M3 money supply increased by 5.0%, and this month the forecast is set at a 4.9% increase.

EUR/AUD Forecast

Since forming a large bullish outside bar on July 20, 2017, the EUR/AUD remained in a strong uptrend and formed a well-respected uptrend line in the process. However, after reaching near the 1.5700 area, the EUR/AUD found some strong resistance and started a bearish retracement move, which pushed the price towards the uptrend line. Currently, the EUR/AUD is trading just above the uptrend line and found support around the 1.5340 level.

As the Eurozone M3 Money Supply is expected to grow only 4.9% compared to 5.0% last month, but the Australian Private Sector Credit is estimated to grow at 0.4%, same as last month, we believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the EUR/AUD this week. Therefore, if the EUR/AUD closes below the support near 1.5340, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 1.5340.

BTC/AUD Forecast

The BTC/AUD remained highly bullish over the last several weeks, but after reaching near the 26,500 level, it found some strong resistance. Meanwhile, as the BTC/USD started a bearish retracement, the BTC/AUD price also started going down. Last week, the bearish momentum pushed the BTC/AUD towards the support level around 16,000. However, since reaching 16,000 level, the BTC/AUD has gradually started going up once again and currently trading near the resistance level around 22,000.

Given the holidays this week, the bitcoin market will likely remain range bound and the BTC/AUD is also set to trade sideways. However, if the currently bullish momentum accelerates by the first week of 2018, the BTC/AUD would likely test the resistance near 22,000.

Hence, Australian bitcoin traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 22,000.

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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Asif Imtiaz

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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