GBP/USD Turns Bearish Amid Prospect of Increasing Unemployment Claims in the UK

GBP/USD – Technical Analysis for Australian Forex Trading & CFDs.

United States – Retail Sales

Tomorrow, at GMT 1:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure, which measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.

Retail sales data are considered by Forex investors to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.

In October, the US retail sales value increased by 0.6% and the forecast for this month is that it would likely remain unchanged at 0.6% as well.

United Kingdom – Claimant Count Change

On Wednesday, at GMT 9:30 a.m., the UK’s Office for National Statistics will release the Claimant Count Change figure, which measures the changes in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

Since it is the first fundamental indicator that confirms the employment situation in the UK, Forex traders consider this to be an important indicator of consumer spending in the coming months. This is because consumer spending is highly dependent on the labor market situation in the country.

In October, the UK’s Claimant Count Change figure came out at 700 and the forecast for this month is currently set at 1,900.

Trade Recommendation for the GBP/USD

GBPUSD - Australian Forex Trading Analysis - Nov 14, 2016

After falling around 3,000 pips since June 23, 2016, the GBP/USD finally found a strong support around the 1.2130 level at the end of October. As a result, over the last two weeks, the GBP/USD has retraced back towards the 1.2540 level and closed above this level.

However, Last Friday, the GBP/USD formed a pin bar looking daily candle and earlier today, the GBP/USD price broke below the low of this bar, falling by around 85 pips for the day.

As the US retail sales is likely to remain unchanged and UK’s unemployment claims would likely to increase, the fundamental outlook for the GBP/USD would most probably remain bearish this week and today’s bearish move also supports this bearish thesis.

Under the circumstances, it would be recommended that Forex traders consider placing a SELL order at market price for the AUD/USD with their AustralianForex trading brokers as soon as the pair closes below the 1.2540 level on the daily time frame. A possible profit target for this trade would be around the 1.2130 level. On the other hand, Forex trader should consider placing a stop loss order above 1.2610.

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Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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Asif Imtiaz

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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