USD/CHF Bearish Retracement May Extend as Swiss Retail Sales Rebounds

USD/CHF – Technical Analysis for Australian Forex Trading brokers

Switzerland – Retail Sales

Today, at GMT 9:15 a.m., the Swiss Federal Statistical Office released the year-over-year retail sales figure, which measures the change in the total value of sales made by the retail sector in the country. However, this figure is adjusted for inflation in order to offer an accurate overview.

Forex investors consider the Swiss retail sales figure to be one of the main gauges of consumer confidence, which makes up the majority of the overall economic activity in Switzerland. Since consumer spending is directly correlated with consumer confidence, it can signal future economic activity as well.

Last month, the value of Swiss retail sales decreased by -0.7% and the forecast for this month was set at an increase of 0.4%. However, the actual figure came much better than the market was expecting, at 0.9% increase.

United States – Retail Sales

On Friday, at GMT 2:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure, which measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.

Retail sales data are considered by Forex traders to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.

Last month, the US retail sales value increased by 0.1% and the forecast for this month is that it would likely increase by an additional 0.5%.

Trade Recommendation for the USD/CHF

USDCHF - Technical Analysis for Australian Forex Trading Brokers - Jan 9-13 2016

Although the USD/CHF has remained on a strong bullish trend over the last two months, on December 29, 2016, the pair broke below the uptrend line and effectively ended the prevailing trend. However, soon the USD/CHF found a strong support near the 1.0080 level.

For the last few days, the USD/CHF price made two attempts to break below the 1.0080 level, but so far has failed to do so.

As the Swiss retail sales figure came out much better than expected, it would likely set a bearish fundamental outlook for the USD/CHF for the next few days. Hence, if the USD/CHF price penetrates below the 1.0080 level, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Under the circumstances, it would be recommended that Forex traders consider placing a SELL order at market price for the USD/CHF with their Australian Forex Trading brokers, as soon as it breaks below the 1.0080 level. A possible profit target for this trade would be around the 1.0010 level. On the other hand, Forex traders should consider placing a stop loss order above 1.0105.

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Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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Asif Imtiaz

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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