AUD/USD Downtrend Likely to Continue Amid Declining Business Confidence in Australia

AUD/USD – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.

Australia – National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited Business Confidence Index

On Tuesday, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited will release its monthly business confidence index figure. This figure measures the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of 350 businesses in Australia.

The survey asks respondents to rate the current business environment in Australia. Businesses are the first to react to changing business conditions. So, Forex traders consider it as a leading indicator of the overall economic health in the coming months. It is because the level of their sentiment can signal optimism and business confidence in the economy.

Last month, the NAB business confidence index reading came out at 9, after coming at 12 in the previous month. If the trend continues this month, it will likely to have a bearish effect on the Australian Dollar.

United States – Producer Price Index

On Tuesday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the US Department of Labor will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) figure. It measures the changes in the price of products and services bought by manufacturers and service providers in the country.

The higher cost of production is usually passed on to the consumers. So, a rise in the producer price index indicates future inflation. Hence, this data is vital for trading currencies as it is used by Forex investors as a leading indicator of the overall US economy.

Last month, the US month-over-month PPI increased by 0.2%. It indicated inflationary pressure on the economy. Analysts are expecting that this month it will increase at a lower rate, by 0.1%.

AUD/USD Forecast

Since January 26, the AUD/USD remained bearish and formed a downward slopping equidistant channel. Last week, the pair fell to 0.7645 and found a strong support. Given the overall downtrend, there is a good possibility that the AUD/USD would try to break below this support towards the 0.7570 in the coming days.

Moreover, the US Producer Price Index is set to grow 0.1% this month. On the other hand, analysts are expecting the Australian NAB Business Confidence Index reading to decline again as it came down from 12 to 9 last month. We believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the AUD/USD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/USD closes below the support near 0.7645, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 0.7645.

BTC/AUD Forecast

There were a lot of negative news about cryptocurrencies as central banks from around the world in recent weeks. Central banks started taking steps to regulate the institutions who support buying and selling cryptocurrencies to curb the ease of access to alternative digital currencies. In a latest attempt, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) joined the bandwagon and said that banks in India will no longer allow Indian residents to buy cryptocurrencies. The RBI announced that banks in India who are regulated by RBI will not deal with or provide services to any Indian residents dealing with crypto or ICOs.

However, even before the RBI’s action, the BTC/AUD was trading within a tight range between 10,000 and 7,500.

The latest blow from the RBI will make it harder for over a billion people in India to participate in bitcoin trading. Hence, we believe it will have a bearish effect on the BTC/AUD price.

Hence, Australian bitcoin traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 7,500.

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at

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