AUD/CHF Bears Might Take Control If Australian Trade Balance Drops Below Estimate

AUD/CHF – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.

Australian – Trade Balance

On Friday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly Trade Balance figure. It measures the difference in value between all import and export. This figure also includes physical goods and intangible services.

The demand for export correlates with the demand for the Australian Dollar. Therefore, Forex traders analyse the monthly trade balance. They do so to gauge the strength of the AUD against other major currencies.

Last month, the Australian trade balance figure came out at 0.11 billion. However, the forecast for this month that it may come out at a slightly better figure, at 0.55 billion.

Switzerland – Foreign Currency Reserves

Later, at GMT 8:00 a.m., the Swiss National Bank will release its foreign currency reserves figure. It measures the total value of foreign currency reserve held by the central bank.

The currency reserve usually goes down when the Swiss National Bank tries to defend the rate of the Swiss France in the open market. It happens when the demand for the CHF is low. Hence, this figure can indicate how actively the central bank is participating in the market. Therefore, Forex investors consider this an important fundamental indicator of the CHF’s future directional movement against other major currencies.

Last month, the Swiss foreign exchange reserves figured came out at 738 billion. In the previous month, it came out at 742 billion. The situation signaled that the SNB is trying to increasing their reserve.

AUD/CHF Forecast

Since September 20, 2017, the AUD/CHF remained in a strong downtrend. After forming a long-tail bearish bar on December 1, it started a bullish retracement. As a result, the AUD/CHF broke above the downtrend line on December 21. However, last week, the pair started a bearish retracement. Currently, it is trading just above the support level near 0.7595.

As we discussed earlier, the Australian trade balance estimate is considerably higher than last month. On the other hand, the Swiss foreign currency reserve estimate is only slightly higher than last month. Therefore, we believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the AUD/CHF this week. However, if the current AUD/CHF bearish momentum continues and the price closes below the support near 0.7595, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 0.7595.

BTC/AUD Forecast

After reaching the all-time high near 27,500, the BTC/AUD started a sharp bearish retracement at the end of December 2018. Consequently, the bitcoin price fell to as low as 16,000 on December 22. Since then it remained range bound and traded mostly sideways. Over the last week, the BTC/AUD price found a strong resistance near the 20,000 level and so far, it has failed to penetrate above it.

Meanwhile, some major Australian banks like National Australia Bank, ANZ, and Westpac started freezing accounts of cryptocurrency traders without prior notice. Such actions might have negative effect on the BTC/AUD price in the coming days. Nonetheless, if bitcoin price breaks above the 20,000 level, it will likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian bitcoin traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 20,000.

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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Asif Imtiaz

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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