AUD/CHF – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.
Australia – Cash Rate
Tomorrow, at GMT 4:30 a.m., the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the official cash rate, which is the interest rate that major Australian banks and financial institutions pay to borrow funds held at the RBA.
Since short-term interest rates are the primary factor in the valuation of the Australian Dollar against other major currencies, Forex traders pay close attention to any changes in the official cash rate.
The RBA left the cash rate at 1.5% in their last meeting and the forecast for this month is that the RBA will leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the time being.
Switzerland – Retail Sales
On Wednesday, at GMT 7:15 a.m., the Swiss Federal Statistical Office released the year-over-year retail sales figure, which measures the change in the total value of sales made by the retail sector in the country. However, this figure is adjusted for inflation in order to offer an accurate overview.
Forex investors consider the Swiss retail sales figure to be one of the main gauges of consumer confidence, which makes up the majority of the overall economic activity in Switzerland. Since consumer spending is directly correlated with consumer confidence, it can signal future economic activity as well.
Last month, the value of Swiss retail sales decreased by -0.3% and the forecast for this month is set at an increase of 1.3%.
Since breaking above the uptrend line on July 12, the AUD/CHF has climbed by around 350 pips over the last two weeks, but found a strong resistance near the 0.7760 area. Although the AUD/CHF failed to break above the 0.7760 and had a sharp pullback, it is still trading just below the resistance level.
As the Australian cash rate is expected to remain at 1.5%, it signals a bullish Australian Dollar. However, given that the Swiss retail sales is expected to increase by 1.3% this week, the AUD/CHF would likely have a tentative fundamental outlook for the next few days. Therefore, if the current bullish trend prevails and the USD/CHF breaks and closes above the resistance level near 0.7760, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.
Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 0.7760 level.