AUD/USD – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.
United States – Retail Sales
Today, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure, which measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.
Retail sales data are considered by Forex traders to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.
Last month, the US retail sales value decreased by -0.2% and the forecast for this month is that it would likely increase by an additional 0.3%.
Australia – Unemployment Rate
On Thursday, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the national unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of total work force that remained unemployed over the past month.
Forex investors consider the unemployment rate to be one of the most important fundamental indicators of the Australian economy because one of the main goals of the Reserve Bank of Australia is to keep the unemployment as low as possible. Although this is a lagging indicator, analyzing this data can help Forex traders predict future interest rates and inflation situation in the country.
Last month, the unemployment rate in Australia came out at 5.6% and the forecast for this month is also set at 5.6%.
After climbing around 680 pips since the end of May, the AUD/USD finally found a strong resistance near the 0.8040 level in July that prompted a bearish retracement over the last few weeks. However, after reaching the around 0.7830, the AUD/USD found a strong support last week. Earlier today, the pair penetrated the 0.7830 level, but so far failed to close below it.
As the US retail sales is expected to increase by 0.3%, but the Australian unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.6%, we believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the AUD/USD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/USD closes below the 0.7830 level, it would likely find additional bearish momentum in the market.
Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 0.7830.