AUD/USD Bullishness May Continue Amid Forecast of Slowing US Retail Sales

AUD/USD – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.

Australia – National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited Business Confidence Index

On Tuesday, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited will release its monthly business confidence index figure. This figure measures the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of 350 businesses in Australia.

The survey asks respondents to rate the current business environment in Australia. Since businesses are the first to react to changing business conditions, the level of their sentiment regarding optimism and business confidence, Forex traders consider it as a leading indicator of the overall economic health in the coming months.

Last month, the NAB business confidence index reading came out at 13, a first double-digit figure after two months. If the trend continues, it would likely to have a bullish effect on the Australian Dollar.

United States – Retail Sales

On Wednesday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure, which measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.

Retail sales data are considered by Forex investors to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.

Last month, the US retail sales value increased by 0.4% and the forecast for this month is that it would likely increase by an additional 0.1%.

AUD/USD Forecast

Over the last two weeks, the AUD/USD remained very bullish. Especially, after the pair’s bearish move was rejected near the previous downtrend line on June 2, the AUD/USD has climbed up by around 120 pips in the last week. However, as soon as the AUD/USD reached near the 0.7555 level, it found a strong resistance, which kept the pair from closing above this psychological pivot zone.

As the Australian NAB business confidence index has remained very strong over the previous few months, but the US retail sales figure is expected to increase by only 0.1% compared to a 0.4% last month, we believe it would likely set a bullish fundamental outlook for the AUD/USD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/USD breaks above the resistance near 0.7555 level, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 0.7555.

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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Asif Imtiaz

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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