AUD/USD – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.
Australia – Consumer Price Index
On Wednesday, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarter-over-quarter consumer price index (CPI) figure that measures the changes in the price of goods and services bought by Australian consumers in the last quarter.
Since the consumer price index is primarily used by the Australian central bank to measure inflation, any significant change in the CPI often makes the Forex market extremely volatile. Also, as the inflation at the retail level has a big influence on the central bank’s future monetary policy. Hence, it is considered by Forex traders to be a leading indicator of the Australian economy.
Last quarter, the Australian consumer price index increased by 0.5%, and the forecast for this quarter is that it will increase by 0.4%.
United States – Unemployment Claims
On Thursday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the US Department of Labor will release the unemployment claims figure, which measures the changes in the number of people who claimed for unemployment insurance over the last week.
Forex investors consider the unemployment claims data to be one of the most important fundamental indicators of the US job market. This is primarily because unemployment and consumer spending has direct correlation and an increasing number of unemployment claims indicate lower consumer spending in the economy, which makes up the bulk of the economic activity in the United States.
Last week, the US unemployment claims figure came out at 233,00 and the forecast for this week is set at an increase to 242,000.
Since breaking above the downtrend line on May 22, the AUD/USD started a strong uptrend that has so far pushed the price up by around 510 pips over the last two months. Last week, the AUD/USD once again turned bullish and broke above the resistance near 0.7830 and currently, it is gradually approaching the resistance near the 0.8080 level.
As the US unemployment claims figure is expected to go up to 242,000, but the Australian consumer price index is expected to increase by an additional 0.4%, we believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the AUD/USD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/USD breaks above the 0.7985 level, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.
Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 0.7985.