EUR/AUD May Turn Bearish as Eurozone Retail Sales Came Below Estimate

EUR/AUD – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.

Eurozone – Retail Sales

On Monday, at GMT 10:00 a.m., the Eurostat released the month-over-month retail sales figure. It measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the Eurozone over the past month.

by Forex traders consider retail sales data to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.

Last month, the Eurozone retail sales value decreased by -1.0%. The forecast for this month was set at a 0.3% increase. However, the actual figure decreased by -0.1%.

Australia – Trade Balance

On Thursday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly Trade Balance figure. It measures the difference in value between all import and export. This figure also includes physical goods and intangible services.

The demand for export correlates with the demand for the Australian Dollar. Therefore, Forex investors analyse the monthly trade balance. They do so to gauge the strength of the AUD against other major currencies.

Last month, the Australian trade balance figure came out at -1.36 billion. However, the forecast for this month that it may come out at a positive figure, at 0.22 billion.

EUR/AUD Forecast

Since forming a pin bar on January 11, 2018, the EUR/AUD remained bullish and climbed up by around 770 pips over the last two months. Last week, the pair broke above the 1.5815 level in the process.

The Australian retail sales is expected to come out much better than the previous month at 0.22 billion. On the other hand, the Eurozone retail sales decreased by -0.1% against a forecast of 0.3% increase. We believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the EUR/AUD this week. Therefore, if the EUR/AUD closes below the support near 1.5815, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 1.5815.

BTC/AUD Forecast

As the BTC/AUD fell towards the 12,000 level, it found a strong support. However, in the last few weeks, the BTC/AUD started a bullish retracement. However, soon it broke below the uptrend line. Currently, it is trading just above the support around 14,000.

Earlier this week, Bank of England governor Mark Carney delivered a speech titled “The Future of Money” and dismissed the idea that cryptocurrencies will replace fiat currencies like the U.S. Dollar or UK’s Pound in the future. His speech was once again portrayed a negative image of bitcoin going forward. We believe if the pair breaks below the support near 14,000, it will attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian bitcoin traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 14,000.

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at

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