EUR/AUD – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.
Eurozone – German Trade Balance
Today, at GMT 6:00 a.m., the Destatis will release the monthly trade balance figure, which measures the difference in value between net import and export of goods over the past month.
The demand for export in Germany is directly correlated with the demand for the Euro, because the German economy makes up a large portion of the overall Eurozone economy. Hence, Forex investors analyze the monthly trade balance in order to gauge the strength of the EURO against other major currencies.
Last month, the German trade balance figure came out at 19.8 billion and the forecast for this month is currently set at 20.3 billion.
Australia – Home Loans
Tomorrow, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the month-over-month home loans figure, which measures the changes in the number of new loans approved for owner-occupied homes.
Since most home purchases are financed by banks, the new home loan figure acts as an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are ready to take out home loans. Therefore, economists and Forex traders consider the changes in the new home loan figure to be a leading indicator of the overall economic situation in the country.
Last month, the Australian new home loans decreased by -1.9% and the forecast for this month is set at an increase of 1.6%.
Since breaking above the downtrend line on March 3, the EUR/AUD has climbed up by around 1,330 pips over the last four months. However, after reaching near the 1.5185 level, the EUR/AUD found a strong resistance on June 1, and since then, the pair remained in a bearish retracement.
Nonetheless, on June 20, the EUR/AUD formed yet another bullish pin bar which reversed the bearish retracement and over the last month, it has climbed up to the minor resistance zone near 1.5070 level. Last week, the EUR/AUD once again tried to test the 1.5070 level, but so far failed to penetrate above it.
As the German trade balance is expected to improve from 19.8 billion to 20.3 billion, we believe it would likely set a bullish fundamental outlook for the EUR/AUD this week. Therefore, if the EUR/AUD penetrates above the 1.5070 level, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.
Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 1.5070.