NZD/USD – Technical Analysis for Forex Trading & CFDs.
New Zealand – Food Price Index
On Tuesday, at 9:45 p.m., the Statistics New Zealand will release the food price index, which measures the changes in the price of food and food services bought by households in the country over the past month.
Forex investors pay special attention to the food price index because food price tends to be highly volatile in New Zealand and any sudden change can have a noticeable impact on the overall inflation situation in the economy.
Last month, the food price index in New Zealand came out at -1.1%. The food price index has been declining for last several months and if the trend continues, it would likely be a negative figure this month as well.
United States – Retail Sales
On Thursday, at GMT 1:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure, which measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.
Retail sales data are considered by Forex traders to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.
Last month, the US retail sales value increased by 0.2% and the forecast for this month is that it would likely increase by an additional 0.3%.
Since the start of November, the NZD/USD remained range bound and traded between the 0.6820 and 0.6920 levels on the daily time frame. Although the NZD/USD briefly broke below the 0.6820 level in the middle of November, it quickly resumed the sideway trading. Last week, the pair once again got rejected around the support near the 0.6820 level and currently, it is approaching the 0.6920 level.
As the Food Price Index in New Zealand has been bearish, but the retail sales value in the United States is expected to increase over the last month, we believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the NZD/USD this week. Therefore, if the NZD/USD fails to close above the resistance near 0.6920 level, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market and once again go down to test the lower end of the range.
Hence, Australian Forex traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major resistance level around 0.6920.
Over the last week, the BTC/AUD remained very bullish and the price broke above the 25,000 level for the first time. However, soon after reaching the all-time record high, the BTC/AUD started a retracement and formed a downtrend line on the 2-week chart. Earlier today, despite a lack of volume in the market, the BTC/AUD gained some bullish momentum and broke above the downtrend line.
Given the recent bullishness in the market, and the fact that the BTC/AUD has broken above the downtrend line, we believe it will likely re-test the 25,000 level once again this week. Hence, it is recommended that Australian bitcoin traders look out for trading opportunities at the current market price.